Strait of Hormuz Crisis 2026: How Geothermal and Renewables Can Shield the World from the Next Energy Shock
Future-Proofing Energy Supplies Against Geopolitical Disruptions
The ongoing conflict in the Middle East, particularly the disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, underscores the vulnerability of global energy systems to geopolitical shocks. With oil prices spiking and supply chains strained, future-proofing "this"—meaning our reliance on volatile fossil fuel imports—requires a multi-layered approach. This involves reducing dependence on conflict-prone regions, enhancing domestic and renewable capacities, and building resilient infrastructure. Drawing from recent analyses and expert insights, here are actionable strategies for nations, businesses, and even individuals to mitigate such risks.
1. Diversify Energy Sources and Import Routes
One of the most immediate ways to insulate against disruptions like those in the Middle East is to spread out supply dependencies. Historically, chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz handle about 20-30% of global oil trade, making them prime targets in conflicts. To counter this:
- Shift to Non-Middle Eastern Suppliers:Increase imports from stable regions such as North America (U.S. and Canada), West Africa (Nigeria, Angola), and South America (Brazil, Guyana). For instance, the U.S. has ramped up LNG exports as a bridge fuel, with temporary waivers allowing purchases from Russia for allies like India. Countries like China are already pivoting by boosting ties with African producers and rerouting via alternative corridors.
- Geopolitical Realignment: Form new energy partnerships, such as "friendshoring" supply chains to allied nations. This includes expanding Western Hemisphere integration and Africa-Asia corridors to bypass high-risk areas. For Kenya, leveraging East African Community ties could secure diversified imports from Tanzania or Uganda, while investing in port infrastructure like Lamu to create alternative routes.
- Practical Steps: Governments should negotiate long-term contracts with multiple suppliers and invest in pipeline bypasses or LNG terminals. Businesses can hedge by diversifying procurement, and individuals might support policies promoting local sourcing.
This diversification not only reduces immediate risks but also encourages innovation in logistics, such as shadow fleets or alternative markets seen in sanctioned regimes like Iran and Venezuela.
2. Accelerate the Transition to Renewables and Clean Energy
Geopolitical shocks often accelerate the shift away from fossil fuels, as seen in Europe's response to the Russia-Ukraine crisis. Renewables offer inherent resilience because they're domestically producible and less susceptible to import disruptions. The current crisis is vindicating efforts in self-sufficiency, with modern renewables now accounting for 13.5% of global total final energy consumption (TFEC), up from 9.9% a decade ago.
Key actions include:
-Scale Up Domestic Renewables: Prioritize solar, wind, hydro, geothermal, and bioenergy. In 2024, renewables hit 32% of global electricity generation, with solar and wind leading growth. For intermittency issues, combine diverse sources with storage solutions like pumped hydro, batteries, and green hydrogen. Geothermal, in particular, provides baseload power—stable and weather-independent—making it ideal for future-proofing. Kenya, with its Rift Valley resources, already generates over 40% of electricity from geothermal and could expand to export regionally, reducing oil reliance.
-Electrification and Efficiency: Push for widespread electrification in transport (EVs), heating, and industry to cut oil demand. Biofuels and green hydrogen can serve hard-to-electrify sectors like aviation and heavy industry. In agriculture and buildings, renewables now cover 30-35% of energy use in some sectors, showing scalable potential.
-Policy and Investment: Governments should offer incentives like tax credits for renewables (e.g., U.S. models) and build cross-border grids for power trade. Businesses can invest in microgrids for decentralized power, while individuals adopt solar panels or EVs. Globally, this transition could transform oil-dependent regions like the Gulf into clean energy hubs via hydrogen and carbon capture.
By 2027, projections show renewables dominating new capacity additions, potentially shielding economies from fossil fuel volatility.
3. Build Strategic Reserves and Enhance Infrastructure Resilience
Short-term buffers are crucial during crises. The IEA recommends maintaining 90 days of oil imports in reserves, a lesson reinforced by recent events.
-Stockpiling Essentials: Expand strategic petroleum reserves (SPR) and include gas, biofuels, and critical minerals. India, for example, holds 6-8 weeks of fuel, monitoring via control rooms. For Kenya, developing similar reserves tied to geothermal and hydro could provide a local safety net.
-Resilient Systems: Invest in decentralized microgrids, smart grids, and cybersecurity to withstand attacks or weather events. This includes modular IT infrastructure and AI for demand management. In war-like scenarios, "operational immunity" via inland rerouting and electrification makes systems harder to disrupt.
-Implementation: Governments can mandate reserve levels and fund infrastructure via loans (e.g., U.S. DOE's $26.5B packages). Businesses should assess risks continuously, as outlined in frameworks for oil-producing regions.
4. Foster International Cooperation and Policy Frameworks
No single nation can fully isolate from global risks, so collaboration is key.
- Regional Alliances: Establish task forces for energy security, like proposed U.S.-UAE climate diplomacy mechanisms that endure political changes. The EU-GCC partnership could expand to include hydrogen and infrastructure resilience.
This combination of diversification, rapid renewable deployment (especially geothermal for stable baseload in places like Kenya), strategic reserves, resilient infrastructure, and smart international partnerships provides the strongest path to future-proofing energy security against recurring geopolitical volatility. The faster the shift toward domestic, renewable, and distributed systems, the less painful future disruptions will be.
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